A new study from Ahrefs quantifies what publishers and SEO practitioners have been observing anecdotally for over a year: Google’s AI Overviews are systematically redirecting traffic away from organic search results at an accelerating rate. The research, based on 300,000 keywords analyzed using Google Search Console data, found that top-ranking pages now see 58 percent lower average click-through rates compared to pre-AI Overviews baselines — up from 34.5 percent just eight months ago.
The methodology compared December 2023 click-through rates, before AI Overviews rolled out broadly, against December 2025 figures. Ahrefs split its sample evenly between 150,000 keywords where AI Overviews are present and 150,000 informational keywords without them, using aggregated Search Console data to calculate average desktop CTR across both cohorts. The framing is blunt: out of every 100 clicks that previously went to top-ranking websites, Google now retains 58.
The effect is not confined to the top position. Pages ranking second lost roughly half their clicks. Pages ranking tenth saw declines approaching 20 percent. The entire first page of organic results is affected, not just the slot that AI Overviews most directly displace. That pattern matters for how businesses should interpret their Search Console data — position stability no longer correlates with traffic stability in the way it once did.
Google has argued that links appearing within AI Overviews receive higher click-through rates than equivalent links positioned outside them, framing inclusion in AI Overviews as a net positive for featured publishers. The Ahrefs data complicates that framing considerably. Even if individual AI Overview citations see elevated CTR, the aggregate effect on the broader result set is sharply negative and worsening. The trajectory — a 23-percentage-point deterioration in eight months — suggests the trend has not stabilized.
For businesses that built traffic acquisition strategies around organic search rankings, the practical implication is that rank tracking alone is no longer sufficient. Visibility in AI-generated answers, brand presence on third-party platforms, and direct audience relationships are becoming structural hedges rather than supplementary tactics. Ahrefs indicated it is continuing to monitor all major SERP features for their traffic impact and will publish ongoing research as the search landscape continues to shift.